STA, 14 April 2018 - The list of Kamnik Mayor Šarec is in the lead with 18.5%, followed closely by the SDS at 18.3% and the SD at 17.65%. These figures are projections that combine stated voting intention with general preference of undecided voters.
Published on Saturday, a month an a half before the election, the poll indicates that seven of more than 20 parties which have already announced their bids would make it into parliament.
The Modern Centre Party (SMC) polled at 12.3%, the Left at 7.7%, and the Pensioners' Party (DeSUS) and New Slovenia at 7%.
According to Dnevnik, all parliamentary players but the party of former Prime Minister Alenka Bratušek will return to the National Assembly, with Šarec's list replacing the former prime minister's party.
Among other parties, the People's Party (SLS) came the closest to the 4% parliamentary threshold, polling at 2.8%.
Using the confidence interval, the leading three parties could be joined by the SMC in the fight for election victory once the campaign kicks into top gear. However, the SMC, could also well slip to the bottom parliamentary ranks.
Looking at party affiliations, the poll indicates that the LMŠ and SDS attract male voters, while the SD has roughly equal support among both genders. Additionally, the SD is a more urban party than the other two.
DeSUS can mainly count on the support of female voters, as four-fifths of its base are women. The party also remains true to its name despite efforts to re-image itself, as 96% of its base are older people and no respondents below 45 picked the party as their favourite.
On the other hand, the Left is the favourite among the young people, with 70% of its base being men.
Some 55% of the respondents said they would definitely vote come election day, and another 20% said they were likely to cast their votes. Only 20% said they would definitely or likely not vote.
However, the actual turnout is always lower than forecasted, with the figure totalling 51.73% in the 2014 election, Dnevnik pointed out.
The poll was conducted by Ninamedia between 9 and 12 April and involved 1000 respondents.
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