* Results of the men's 15km mass start: 1 Quentin Fillon Maillet (FRA) 36:21.5 (1) 2 Benedikt Doll (GER) +10.0 (1) 3 Johannes Thingnes Boe (NOR) 10.3 (2) 4 Vetle Sjaastad Christiansen (NOR) 10.6 (1) 5 Martin Fourcade (FRA) 10.8 (1) 6 Erlend Bjoentegaard (NOR) 21.4 (2) 7 Johannes Dale (NOR) 39.8 (2) 8 Simon Eder (AUT) 42.8 (0) 9 Tarjei Boe (NOR) 43.5 (2) 10 Lukas Hofer (ITA) 1:05.4 (2) ... 21 Jakov Fak (SLO) 1:56.1 (3) ... - Overall standings (13 out of 24 events): 1 Martin Fourcade (FRA) 601 pts 2 Quentin Fillon Maillet (FRA) 532 3 Johannes Thingnes Boe (NOR) 482 4 Simon Desthieux (FRA) 479 5 Tarjei Boe (NOR) 461 6 Alexander Loginov (RUS) 436 7 Benedikt Doll (GER) 415 8 Emilien Jacquelin (FRA) 401 9 Johannes Dale (NOR) 398 10 Vetle Sjaastad Christiansen (NOR) 372 ... 15 Jakov Fak (SLO) 286
News
27 Jan 2020, 15:02 PM
STA, 27 January - Marjan Šarec, who resigned on Monday, will see his term as prime minister end when the National Assembly takes note of his resignation. This could happen as early as Wednesday. The term of the entire cabinet will end at the same time and the government will assume a caretaker role. A snap election could be held in late April.
The parliamentary rules of procedure say that the prime minister must inform government ministers about the resignation, and has the right to explain the resignation in the National Assembly.
After the parliamentary speaker is notified about the resignation, the matter is put on the agenda of a National Assembly session at the latest in seven days. The National Assembly does not take a vote, but only takes note that the prime minister's term has ended.
As a regular, three-day plenary started today, parliamentary Speaker Dejan Židan said that MPs could take note of Šarec's resignation already on Wednesday.
Židan added that, considering the rules for the further procedure in the case of resignation of a prime minister, a snap election could be held in the second half of April.
Following the National Assembly getting formally acquainted with the resignation, the president of the republic has 30 days to propose a candidate for the new prime minister to parliament.
Following the resignation of Alenka Bratušek as prime minister in 2014, the predominant opinion was that the deadline could be shortened if all qualified candidates renounce the possibility to nominate a prime minister-designate.
If there are no candidates for prime minister-designate, this is also formally confirmed by the National Assembly, after which a new 14-day period starts in which a candidate could be proposed by a deputy group or a group of at least 10 MPs.
If this round is unsuccessful as well, a 48-hour period starts in which MPs may decide whether to go for the third round, and if a new prime minister is not elected, the president dissolves the National Assembly and calls a snap election.
Šarec himself called for a snap election to be held as soon as possible, which in accordance with the relevant law are held not later than two months after the dissolution of the National Assembly.
The term of the current National Assembly will end with the maiden session of the MPs elected in the snap election, which must be held not later than 20 days after the election.
Not later than 30 days after the maiden session, the president must put forward a nominee for prime minister-designate following consultations with the deputy groups.
As a rule, this is the president of the party which has won a relative majority in the election. The nominee is voted on in a secret ballot and is elected with an absolute majority of 46 MPs.
Most parties favour snap election
STA, 27 January 2020 - First reactions to Marjan Šarec's surprise announcement that he was stepping down to seek a snap election indicate most parties favour an early election, while Zdravko Počivalšek, the leader of the Modern Centre Party (SMC) which Šarec mentioned as a potential pre-election ally, does not see the need for a snap election.
Janez Janša, the leader of the largest opposition party deems an early election by far the likeliest and probably the best option. His Democratic Party (SDS) is holding a session of the executive council on Thursday or Friday to decide steps in the wake of Šarec's resignation.
However, Janša proposes for the time ahead of the election, which he reckons could be held in the second half of April, to be used to pass urgently needed laws that Slovenia had been waiting for years or decades. The SDS thus invited other parties to start talks on those laws.
Janša listed a bill on the demographic fund to shore up the pension system, which he said had already been drafted, a bill to cut waiting times in healthcare that had been drawn up by the Medical Chamber and tabled by the opposition New Slovenia (NSi) and a bill on public procurement in healthcare, to be filed by the SDS shortly.
"It may be easier to pass these laws at the time when there's no government, and that those who have opposed these laws, or turned down talks themselves, may be willing to talk. Also, because voters may be more attentive at this time," said Janša.
Given the current composition of the National Assembly, Janša believes it would be hard to form a solid development coalition.
"It may be possible forming a coalition which would do less damage than the one that fell irreversibly apart today. But there are many doubts there as well," said Janša, who was unable to form a government coalition after the 2018 election even though his party won a plurality of the vote.
The opposition New Slovenia (NSi) and the Left, and the coalition Social Democrats (SD) also favour an early election and the new leader of the Pensioners' Party (DeSUS), Aleksandra Pivec said DeSUS was ready for a fresh election, but would want to talks things through in the party before taking any decisions.
Meanwhile, the coalition SMC and the Alenka Bratušek Party (SAB) are not keen, as is not the opposition National Party (SNS).
"I don't see the need to have a fresh election at the moment because of the government's resignation," said Počivalšek, the economy minister.
He said that the situation in Slovenia was stable at the moment and could be used to go forward. He was open for talks in all directions provided they benefit one and the other party.
"I had a hunch that something like that would happen, considering what've experienced recently," Počivalšek told reporters after Šarec announced he was stepping down.
Asked whether he would be involved in an attempt to form a new government headed by SDS leader Janez Janša or NSi head Matej Tonin, he said the SMC was interested in cooperation and in what was good for the country: "We don't intends to go left or right, not backward but forward."
Asked whether he would be willing to act as the prime-minister designate himself, Počivalšek said that all options were open.
As to pre-election cooperation offered to the SMC by Šarec, Počivalšek said the party was cooperating with everyone. They were talking how Slovenia could do better with ones and the others.
27 Jan 2020, 13:35 PM
STA, 27 January 2020 - Marjan Šarec is the fourth Slovenian prime minister to resign, following Janez Drnovšek, Alenka Bratušek and Miro Cerar. Below is a timeline of those resignations.
2 December 2002 - Janez Drnovšek resigns half-way into his third term after being elected the president of the republic. The post of the prime minister is assumed by Anton Rop from the ranks of the Liberal Democracy of Slovenia (LDS), the party headed by Drnovšek between 1992 and 2003.
4 May 2014 - Alenka Bratušek, who takes over as the first female prime minister of Slovenia during turbulent political times, resigns after slightly more than a year on the job over discords within her party. Bratušek resigns after losing to Ljubljana Mayor Zoran Janković in the vote for the presidency of the Positive Slovenia (PS) party. The resignation is followed by the collapse of the entire government, and the PS deputy group splits into a part loyal to Janković and the other part inclined to Bratušek.
14 March 2018 - Miro Cerar resigns just months before the regular end of his term. While the economic situation in the country improves during the term of his government, problems also pile up and the last straw, according to Cerar, is the annulment by the Supreme Court of the referendum in which voters endorsed the project to build a new railway servicing the port of Koper.
27 January 2020 - Marjan Šarec resigns with the argument that he is not able to meet the expectations from the people with the minority coalition he has at his disposal. He admits that the government has not been able to carry out major structural reforms and calls for a snap election to be called as soon as possible.
27 Jan 2020, 11:57 AM
Tokyo is not a place where one would expect to find a professional oom-pah band, and even less so one which would sing in Slovenian. The East Asian love for themed events and cultural learning, however, has ensured that this aspect of cultural heritage is also represented in Japan.
Among a variety of interesting things one can experience in Japan there is the Oktoberfest in Fukuoka and other places, with German beer, dirndl dresses and lederhosen (SLO: irharce) and of course with Edelweisskapelle and their impeccable interpretations of German, Austrian and Slovenian oom-pah and oom-pah-pah.
Edelweisskapelle, which consists of professional musicians, also performs in Europe. Their last tour on this side of the world was in 2017, which unfortunately didn’t include Slovenia.
In 2015 Fukuoka and Edelweisskapelle also hosted a German accordionist Alexander Koll and Slovenian diatonic accordion manufacturer Jernej Brilej. This is what they played together:
We certainly hope to see Edelweisskapelle in Slovenia someday. Planica would be nice, or perhaps the New Year celebrations in Ljubljana?
27 Jan 2020, 10:38 AM
Last updated 12:30 27/01/2020
STA, 27 January 2020 - Prime Minister Marjan Šarec has announced he is stepping down in a bid to push for a snap election, saying he could not achieve what he set out to do with the current minority coalition.
"With 13 MPs and this coalition I cannot fulfil people's expectations at the moment. But I can fulfil them after elections," Šarec told reporters on Monday, shortly after it transpired that Finance Minister Andrej Bertoncelj was stepping down, presumably over differences regarding health insurance.
Related - A Short History of Prime Ministerial Resignations in Slovenia
"People on the ground should say whether they trust me or not," Šarec said, adding that he could not know whether the polls showing 50% support for the government were right and that a snap election would show whether the approval ratings were realistic or not.
He said that even the previous government, which had 36 and later 35 MPs in the 90-strong National Assembly, was not capable of implementing any substantial reform.
"If we head for elections, if there's that will, we have spoken with Zdravko Počivalšek about that, to link up to go together so you didn't have to guess what's happening behind the scenes," Šarec said.
Apart from Počivalšek's Modern Centre Party (SMC), Šarec was also offering cooperation to other local initiatives, lists and initiatives and everyone interested in contesting the election.
However, in his first reaction Počivalšek said that Šarec's resignation did not mean yet there was a need for a fresh election.
Šarec said he was aware that after his resignation "parliamentary kitchen may be set into motion to start forming a new government".
However, he believes the fairest thing to do for citizens as well as for oneself would be "heading for an early election and let people tell whether they trust me".
Looking back on a year and a half in office, he said that on 13 September 2018 when his government took over there were a number of problems awaiting them, including talks with public sector trade unions and budgets for 2020 and 2021.
"In the meantime, we implemented tax optimisation and reduced the tax burden on the holiday allowance, which has had a favourable effect on domestic consumption and people certainly had more in their purses."
He also noted the increase in social transfers, improvements to the situation in the police force, reduction of state debt, and the budgets for 2020 and 2021, the first ones with a surplus.
"Considering the past government, this is a good achievement," he said, adding that the government also saw to the fiscal stability, but said that Slovenia had one of the most rigid fiscal rules in the EU, which needed to be softened.
"The government has sailed safely through many dire straits and I must say successfully," Šarec summed up his record in office, adding that the cabinet adopted measures allowing the country to run on, but that citizens reported many problems that needed to be tackled.
He believes electoral law could have been reformed, "if there were less talks and more will". He also noted the challenge of long-term care and demographic fund and new housing legislation.
A Short Biography of Marjan Šarec, Ex-Comic & Slovenia's Youngest PM
27 Jan 2020, 09:21 AM
STA, 25 January - Rajko Kozmelj, director of Slovenia's intelligence and security agency SOVA (Slovenska obveščevalno-varnostna agencija), will insist the agency be given new powers to fight against violent extremism. He also said in an interview run by the newspaper Delo on Saturday he believed the political oversight of SOVA was being abused.
The draft resolution on the national security strategy envisaged new powers to facilitate early detection of violent extremism, such as the Štajerska Varda.
This would allow SOVA to secretly enter the homes of Slovenian citizens without ties to foreigners to gather data, which many found problematic.
The parliamentary Defence Committee consequently voted against these provisions before the resolution was passed in parliament without them last September.
Kozmelj believes the public and some politicians will probably find it hard to understand SOVA's arguments for more powers "until we are faced with a concrete threat".
He said SOVA would like "a specific new power to uncover and prevent on time all security risks for which no law enforcement body in Slovenia has powers now".
Kozmelj gave the Štajerska Guard para-military group as an example, saying the country's security system had no means to detect this security threat.
It was too early for the police to start an investigation, whereas SOVA could not act "because there was no foreign element involved", he explained.
Another of SOVA's challenges is staff. Kozmelj said SOVA would continue to hire through public calls and in other ways, but "the problem is how to attract adequate staff who would be willing to work for such a low pay".
Kozmelj also believes political oversight, carried out by a parliamentary commission, is being abused, but he is in favour of "expert and independent oversight".
He argued that measures based on ICT could only be overseen by "those who know what they have in front of them". "Of course, this does not mean I exclude political oversight."
As for the scandal surrounding the hiring of Prime Minister Marjan Šarec's acquaintance, he said this chapter was over for SOVA, yet it continued to be politicised.
Kozmelj is also bothered that SOVA staff are allowed to be members of political parties, so in the planned changes to the SOVA law, this is to be severely limited.
Asked which minister is most active user of SOVA's intelligence, Kozmelj said apart from the prime minister, it was Economy Minister Zdravko Počivalšek and Education Minister Jernej Pikalo.
"When I came to SOVA, I noticed the cooperation with the ministries was not the way I'd want it to be. Now we have joint meetings to properly discuss things."
27 Jan 2020, 09:13 AM
STA, 26 January 2020 - Slovenia's Anamarija Lampič finished second in the women's classic sprint event in the Cross-Country World Cup in Germany's Oberstdorf on Sunday for her fifth career podium finish and fourth in the current season.
In the final run, Lampič was beaten by Natalya Nepryayeva of Russia by 0.26 of a second, while the remaining competitors were left far behind.
This is the fourth podium finish for the 24-year-old in the current season, in which she already has two wins - in Switzerland Lenzerheide on 29 December last year and in Italy's Val di Fiemme on 4 January.
Lampič is currently first in the World Cup standings in sprint with 355 points, 70 points ahead of the second-placed Linn Svahn of Sweden, while she is 9th overall.
"I was going at full strength, while [Nepryayeva] had already competed yesterday, and was a bit tired today. But I think that she had a bit better skis, but never mind, I'm still happy with the second place," she said.
Nejc Brodar, the head coach of the Slovenian cross-country skiing team, said that "it was another excellent performance. Routine runs. She has shown that she deserves to wear the jersey of the leader in the overall sprint rankings."
27 Jan 2020, 04:25 AM
Check the date at the top of the page, and you can find all the "morning headlines" stories here. You can also follow us on Facebook and get all the news in your feed.
A schedule of all the main events involving Slovenia this week can be found here
This summary is provided by the STA:
Doctor and humanitarian Ninna Kozorog gets Spade of the Year
MARIBOR - A statement encouraging people to seek role models in themselves won physician and humanitarian worker Ninna Kozorog the Spade of the Year award, presented on Saturday evening by Večer for the statement that its readership believe best captured the zeitgeist of last year. "The most important role model is the person who looks at us in the evening from the mirror, when we wash away the mask of the day," is the most apt statement from 2019 selected by the readers of the Maribor-based newspaper. Receiving the award, Kozorog said it meant that there are at least some people left who think that they could be real role models in a different way, with small acts.
France's Fillon Maillet, Sweden's Oeberg win mass start events at Pokljuka
POKLJUKA - France's Quentin Fillon Maillet won the men's 15km mass start event of the Biathlon World Cup meet at Pokljuka, finishing the the race ahead of Benedikt Doll of Germany and Norwegian Johannes Thingnes Boe. Hanna Oeberg of Sweden meanwhile won the women's 12.5km mass start, finishing ahead of Italian Lisa Vittozzi and France's Anais Bescond in what was the last World Cup meet ahead of the world championships in Italy. The best Slovenian competitor was Jakov Fak, who finished 21st in the men's race, as he missed three shots in the process while battling a cold.
Cross-country skier Lampič 2nd in World Cup in Oberstdorf
OBERTSTDORF, Germany - Slovenia's Anamarija Lampič finished second in the women's classic spring event in the Cross-Country World Cup in Germany's Oberstdorf for her fifth career podium finish and fourth in the current season. The the 24-year-old already has two wins this season - in Switzerland Lenzerheide on 29 December last year and in Italy's Val di Fiemme on 4 January. Lampič is currently first in the World Cup standings in sprint with 355 points, 70 points ahead of the second-placed Linn Svahn of Sweden, while she is 9th overall with 528 points .
Visiting Ljubljana? Check out what's on this week, while all our stories on Slovenia, from newest to oldest, are here
If you're learning Slovenian then you can find all our dual texts here
26 Jan 2020, 21:18 PM
STA, 26 January 2020 - France's Quentin Fillon Maillet is the winner of the men's 15km mass start event of the Biathlon World Cup meet at Slovenia's Pokljuka on Sunday. He finished the race ahead of Benedikt Doll of Germany and Norwegian Johannes Thingnes Boe.
Fillon Maillet missed only one shot and was very quick in the running part, as was Doll (+10.0), who also missed one shot. Boe was even quicker but missed two shots to finish 10.3 second behind the winner.
"I didn't have any particular strategy. I gave my best in the last lap in order to stay in the first place," said Fillon Maillet after the race.
This compatriot Martin Fourcade is still in the overall lead in the World Cup with 601 points, with Fillon Maillet trailing by 69 points and Boe by 119 points.
The best Slovenian competitor was Jakov Fak, who finished 21st, as he missed three shots in the process while battling cold. He crossed the finish line 1 minute and 56 seconds after Fillon Maillet.
"It was very difficult ... but it nevertheless paid to appear in front of this audience," Fak said, adding that the "current situation and form are not such that I could be a match to the competitors at the top."
Women's mass start at Pokljuka won by Sweden's Oeberg
STA, 26 January 2020 - Hanna Oeberg of Sweden won the women's 12.5km mass start event at Slovenia's Pokljuka on Sunday, finishing ahead of Italian Lisa Vittozzi and France's Anais Bescond in what was the last Biathlon World Cup meet ahead of the world championships in Italy.
Oeberg missed one shot but was better in the running part than Vittozzi (+6.5) and Bescond (27.6), who were perfect in shooting.
This is the fourth individual career victory for the 24-year-old Swede, who won the world champion title in the individual race in Östersund in 2019.
* Results of the women's 12.5km mass start: 1 Hanna Oeberg (SWE) 34:14.4 (1) 2 Lisa Vittozzi (ITA) +6.5 (0) 3 Anais Bescond (FRA) 27.6 (0) 4 Monika Hojnisz-Starega (POL) 37.5 (1) 5 Justine Braisaz (FRA) 44.1 (3) 6 Marte Olsbu Roeiseland (NOR) 48.4 (3) 7 Lisa Theresa Hauser (AUT) 59.9 (1) 8 Ingrid Landmark Tandrevold (NOR) 1:09.0 (3) 9 Dorothea Wierer (ITA) 1:09.6 (2) 10 Marketa Davidova (CZE) 1:22.5 (2) ... - Overall standings (13 out of 24 events): 1 Tiril Eckhoff (NOR) 524 pts 2 Dorothea Wierer (ITA) 509 3 Hanna Oeberg (SWE) 456 4 Denise Herrmann (GER) 419 5 Julia Simon (FRA) 385 6 Ingrid Landmark Tandrevold (NOR) 384 7 Marte Olsbu Roeiseland (NOR) 381 8 Justine Braisaz (FRA) 380 9 Paulina Fialkova (SVK) 353 10 Lisa Vittozzi (ITA) 325 ...
26 Jan 2020, 17:20 PM
According to the World Economic Forum’s newly developed Social Mobility Index, Slovenia ranks the highest among Eastern European countries and 13th globally, just after France and before Canada.
Nordic countries perform best, with Denmark, Norway, Finland, Sweden and Iceland at the top, and the world’s superpowers ranked somewhere in the middle, with the United States at 27, Russia at 39 and China at 45th place.
Historically, such indexes have analysed social mobility across generations by comparing the earnings of children with those of their parents, meaning that the time difference between the measure and its effect could amount to 30 or 40 years.
The newly proposed social mobility index produced by the WEF focuses on the drivers of relative social mobility instead of outcomes. It uses 10 pillars, which are then broken down into five determinants of social mobility: health, education, technology access, work opportunities, working conditions and fair wages and finally, social protection and inclusive institutions.
Such a Global Social Mobility Index reveals that there are only a few nations with the right conditions to foster social mobility, while most countries underperform in four areas: fair wage, social protection, working conditions and lifelong learning.
For the full list, please click here.
26 Jan 2020, 16:11 PM
Keep up with the daily news in Slovenia by checking the morning headlines here. What to find out what happened last week in Slovenia? Look no further.
The following schedule was prepared by the STA:
MONDAY, 27 January
LJUBLJANA - The National Assembly will start its monthly plenary with a Q&A session with Prime Minister Marjan Šarec and his cabinet.
OSWIECIM, Poland - President Borut Pahor will attend a memorial marking the 75th anniversary of the liberation of the Nazi concentration camp Auschwitz-Birkenau. The delegation will include Slovenian Auschwitz survivors.
LJUBLJANA - The Statistics Office will release January business sentiment figures.
TUESDAY, 28 January
LJUBLJANA - Public presentation of the amended National Energy and Climate Plan.
LJUBLJANA - The Information Commissioner will host a round table on the protection of personal data.
LJUBLJANA - AmCham Slovenia will host a panel dedicated to companies' international operations.
LJUBLJANA - The STA will host a panel on the effects of the reduced rate of VAT on books.
WEDNESDAY, 29 January
LJUBLJANA - The National Assembly will wrap up its plenary with a debate on controversial amendments that would abolish supplementary health insurance.
NEUHAUS, Austria - Cohesion Policy Minister Angelika Mlinar and the governor of the Austrian state of Styria Peter Kaiser will hold talks on the margins of a presentation Geopark Karavanke, a cross-border territorial cooperation association.
PIRAN - The Festival of European and Mediterranean Film; until 1 February.
LJUBLJANA - A comprehensive exhibition dedicated to Serbian Modernism will open at the National Gallery.
LJUBLJANA - The Alpe-Adria tourism fair will kick off; until 1 February.
THURSDAY, 30 January
LJUBLJANA - Foreign Minister Miro Cerar will hold meet with British Ambassador Sophie Honey on the eve of the UK's exit from the EU.
NOVO MESTO - Pharma company Krka will release preliminary business results for 2019.
LENDAVA - President Borut Pahor will address a ceremony marking International Holocaust Remembrance Day.
LJUBLJANA - Prime Minister Marjan Šarec, Finance Minister Andrej Bertoncelj and Economy Minister Zdravko Počivalšek will attend a meeting of the Manager Association.
LJUBLJANA - Weekly government session.
FRIDAY, 31 January
LUXEMBOURG - The EU's Court of Justice will announce whether it will admit Slovenia's suit against Croatia over the latter's failure to implement the 2017 border arbitration award.
LJUBLJANA - The Statistics Office will release tourism figures for December.
SATURDAY, 1 February
No major events scheduled.
SUNDAY, 2 February
No major events scheduled.
26 Jan 2020, 13:04 PM
The first thing to note is that even the vague shape of the relationship between the UK and EU in 2021, when the transition period that begins at 11pm 31 January 2020 ends, remains unknown, even at this late stage of the game.
The degree of closeness will depend on the degree of alignment – the extent to which the UK continues to follow EU practices, especially in terms of state aid, standards and regulations. In just the last week Sajid Javid, the UK’s Economics Minister (or Chancellor of the Exchequer) said that businesses should get ready for no alignment, a statement that was met with shock by those who understood the implications – a bare bones deal with significant disruption for current UK-EU trade links and no immediate or obvious benefits. A sharp shock to the system. He was then forced to backtrack on his comments, reassuring British businesses – particularly those in the pharmaceutical, automotive and aerospace industries – that close alignment would still be maintained. However, without offering more specifics, or even the outline of what the UK’s negotiating aims are, businesses still have no idea what to plan for.
The imbalance of trade. SURS
In truth, no one knows if the UK will be willing to make the compromises needed to maintain a high level of market access, or if it will be possible to sell such a deal to Parliament and the public as “Brexit” – a term that exists in a haze of contradictory aims and positions, its final form a mystery. There’s also the small matter of the EU27 all having to agree on the deal…
Brexit and Slovenia
So there’s a lot that we don’t know, but for a Slovene perspective there’s a report from May 2019, “Analysis of the Consequences of Different Brexit Scenarios on the Internal Market and Trade Relations with the United Kingdom of Great Britain (“Analiza Posledic Različnih Scenarijev Brexit Na Notranji Trg In Trgovinske Odnose Z Združenim Kraljestvom Velike Britanije”), by Dr. Jože P. Damijan Dr. Črt Kostevc, and Dr. Tjaša Redek. It’s in Slovene, but there’s a summary in English that starts on page vii of the PDF.
Trade between the UK and Slovenia
First, the context of British-Slovene trade relations:
In 2018, exports to the UK amounted to €577 million and imports to €441 million (SURS). With a 2% share of total exports, the UK is a modestly important trade partner for Slovenia, whereby its importance is continuously decreasing. In the last two decades, Slovenia’s share of exports to the UK decreased from 3% to 2%. A similar trend can be observed on the imports side, where the share of the UK in total imports decreased form 2% to 1.4% in the last two decades. For Slovenian exporters, the markets of other old EU member states (Austria, France, Italy, Germany) and new EU member states (Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, Poland) are more important.
Slovenian exports to the UK are primarily electrical appliances and equipment (19% in total exports to UK), furniture (13%), boilers, machines and mechanical equipment (11%), cars (9%), pharmaceutical products (7%), products made from plastic (7%) and paper and paper products (3%). The main import goods from the UK to Slovenia are: mineral fuels (around 20% of total imports from the UK), electrical appliances and equipment (12%), boilers, machines and mechanical equipment (12%), products made from plastic (5%), pharmaceutical products (4%), steel products (4%) and aluminium products (4%).
Exports of services to the UK amounted to €191 million in 2017 and services imports amounted to €175 million. The main services exports are tourism services, while in imports the main services are business, telecommunications, and IT services.
The UK is a modestly important foreign investor in Slovenia. The stock of foreign direct investment is constant at around €300 million over the last 5 years (2% of total FDI in Slovenia), with the main British investors in Slovenia being PriceWaterhouseCoopers, Unilever, Astrazeneca, Shell and Castrol. Slovenian direct investment in the UK is extremely low – between €15 and €20 million in 2013-2016 and falling to €6 million in 2018. The main Slovenian investors in the UK are Gorenje, Krka, SIJ, Trimo, Bisol, Riko, Savatech and Unior, which mostly mainly invested in trade representative offices in the UK to promote their exports.
Hard or soft Brexit?
The study then goes on to examine the impacts of three scenarios on Slovenia : hard Brexit (no deal at the end of 2020, and the UK trading on WTO terms), deferred hard Brexit (the same, but with a longer transition period that the current 11 months), and soft Brexit, envisaged here as being similar to EFTA membership, with a high level of market access, although still below the current one. As noted at the start of this story, any of these three remain possible – along with various different flavours of soft Brexit, but the present rhetoric from London seems to be pushing for a relatively hard Brexit. That said, London talked strong in 2019 but then signed up to a Withdrawal Agreement that puts a border in the Irish Sea, so as the pressure mounts anything could happen.
The impact of Brexit on exports, imports and employment in Slovenia
The paper presents a thorough analysis of the three scenarios, with the key paragraphs presented below:
According to model simulations, a composite effect of Brexit on Slovenian exports will be in a range between a 0.06% reduction (hard Brexit) and 0.01% increase (soft Brexit). This composite effect consists of a potential reduction of Slovenian exports to the UK in the range between 3.7% (soft Brexit) and 32.3% (hard Brexit) and an increase of exports to other EU countries and the rest of the world. Hence, due to trade diversion effects, a reduction in exports to UK after Brexit would be almost entirely compensated by increased exports to other EU countries and rest of the world.
The sectoral overview shows that due to hard Brexit wood processing and furniture, public services, paper products, forestry, production of metal products and production of crops might be hurt the most, though the estimated effects are quite low. In the case of hard Brexit, gross value added in wood processing and furniture might drop by 1.1% in 10 years and by a quarter of 1% in the case of an orderly Brexit. Effects of a similar magnitude are expected also in the paper processing industry, while in other industries that will be hurt by Brexit the estimated effects do not exceed 0.3% cumulatively in 10 years. There are, however, also industries that might benefit from Brexit, in particular the car industry, chemicals, meat processing and leather industry (a rise between 0.3% and 0.9%), while for other industries these effects will not exceed 0.1% in the 10-year period.
The potential aggregate impact of Brexit on employment is estimated to be relatively low. Our calculations show that about 237 jobs (soft Brexit) and up to 900 jobs (hard Brexit) might be at risk. Most of these jobs that are at risk are in the services industries and for qualified labor. However, these employment effects due to Brexit are lower by the factor of 5 when compared to regular seasonal fluctuations in the labour market.
You can see more of the report, which goes on to a summary of corporate and consumer sentiment with regard to Brexit, here. All our stories on Brexit and Slovenia are here.
