STA, March 15, 2018 – The Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development (IMAD), the government's macroeconomic forecaster, has upgraded its GDP growth forecast for this year from 3.9% to 5.1% and from 3.2% to 3.8% for next year. In 2020, the Slovenian economy is expected to expand by 3.2% (PDF summary).
The government think-tank expects the rapid export growth to continue but gradually slow down in the coming years. After last year's 10.6% growth, exports should increase by 9.2% this year, by 7.5% in 2019, and by 6.8% in 2020.
The import growth will exceed export growth, but foreign trade will continue to positively contribute to the economic growth.
Private consumption, which was up by 3.2% last year, is expected to rise by 3.6% this year, by 3% next year and by another 2% in 2020.
Government spending will meanwhile climb by 1.7% this year, by 1.4% in 2019 and by 1.1% by 2020.
The growth of gross investment this year will be 0.3 percentage points lower than last year at 10%. In the next couple of years the growth will slow down to 8.5% and 7.5%, respectively.
IMAD also expects a strong rise in nominal wages. After last year's 2.7% rise in gross wages, this year the gross monthly earnings are to increase by 4%, next year by 4.5% and in 2020 by 4.3%.
In real terms, last year's 1.3% wage growth will be followed by a 2.5% increase this year, a 2.6% rise in 2019 and a 2% in 2020.
The registered unemployment rate, reaching 9.5% last year, is expected to drop to 8% this year, to 7.2% next year and to 6.7% in 2020.
